Macroeconomic outcomes continue to underperform potential, due to the major impact of two exogenous shocks: the lower oil prices and the elevated regional insecurity. Oil revenues have collapsed to a fraction of their previous level and are expected to only partially and gradually recover. Spending has been significantly retrenched, but liquidity problems abound, and domestic arrears are accruing on a large scale. Given the government's share in the economy, the spillovers to the rest of the economy are severe and recent gains in development outcomes under threat. The threat to security in the region remains serious, causing economic disruption, reprioritization of spending to defense, hosting of refugees and internally displaced persons, and exacerbating the difficult economic situation.
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