Aging Gracefully: Steering the Banking Sector through Demographic Shifts

Aging Gracefully: Steering the Banking Sector through Demographic Shifts
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Volume/Issue: Volume 2024 Issue 118
Publication date: June 2024
ISBN: 9798400279447
$20.00
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Topics covered in this book

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Banks and Banking , Finance , Economics- Macroeconomics , Economics / General , Demography , Aging , Demographics , Bank risk-taking , Financial Stability , IMF working paper No , 24/118 , tail risk , risk preference , stability risk , solvency profile , bank assets , Commercial banks , Bank soundness , Loans , Global

Summary

We analyze how aging populations might affect the stability of banking systems through changes in the balance sheets and risk preferences of banks over the period 2000-2022. While the anticipated decline in maturity transformation due to aging hints at a possible reduction in risk exposure, an older population may propel banks towards yield-seeking behaviors, offsetting the diminishing prominence of conventional lending operations. Through a comprehensive examination of advanced economies over the past two decades, our findings reveal a general enhancement in bank stability correlating with the aging of populations. However, the adaptive responses of banks to these demographic changes are potentially introducing tail risks. Given the rapid global shift towards aging societies, our analysis highlights the critical need for policymakers to be proactive and vigilant. This is particularly pertinent considering historical precedents where periods of relative stability have often been harbingers of emerging risks.