Are Fund Staff Projections of Debt More Optimistic Under Program Contexts?

Volume/Issue: Volume 2005 Issue 065

Publication date:

ISBN:

Add to Cart by clicking price of the language and format you'd like to purchase

Available Languages and Formats

Topics covered in this book

This title contains information about the following subjects. Click on a subject if you would like to see other titles with the same subjects.

Business and Economics , Exports and Imports , Public Finance , PP , Fund , program , debt projection , program dummy , Fund-supported program , projection error , Fund exhibit , General government spending , Debt sustainability , Real exchange rates

Also of interest

2018 Review of Program Design and Conditionality

Review of Implementation of IMF Commitments in Support of the 2030 Agenda for...

Implementing Board-Endorsed Recommendations From The 2024 External Evaluation...

CD Guidance Note

Summary

This note examines whether projections made in the context of a Fund-supported program are systematically more optimistic than those done for surveillance cases. Of particular interest in this regard is the assessment of external debt sustainability, as this underlies the "capacity to repay the Fund" analysis. Accordingly, this note examines debt projections over the period 1990-2004, with data for transition countries beginning in 1995.