Armenia:Technical Assistance Report-Quantifying Fiscal Risks from Climate Change

Author: International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Technical Assistance Report-Quantifying Fiscal Risks from Climate Change

Volume/Issue: Volume 2022 Issue 329

Publication date: October 2022

ISBN: 9798400224140

$20.00

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Topics covered in this book

This title contains information about the following subjects. Click on a subject if you would like to see other titles with the same subjects.

Economics- Macroeconomics , Money and Monetary Policy , Public Finance , International - Economics , Environmental Economics , Natural Disasters , IMF resident Representative , IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department , climate exposure , expenditure Rigidity , mitigation target , climate adaptation needs , risk premia , temperature variance , feasibility study , PPP climate change risk exposure , Climate change , Fiscal risks , Natural disasters , Global

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Summary

Armenia is facing considerable fiscal risks from climate change due to increasing and highly variable temperatures. This report provides guidance on how to quantify those risks over the long term, using an empirical approach to identify the potential impact of a range of temperature scenarios on GDP and the public finances. It finds that an extreme unmitigated temperature scenario that incorporates higher year to year variability could reduce GDP by 18 percent relative to baseline, and lead to unsustainable public debt trajectory by 2070. It also finds particular exposures to climate change on the state’s balance sheet through its SOE, PPP and on lending portfolio in the energy, water and transport sectors.