Forecasting Social Unrest: A Machine Learning Approach

Forecasting Social Unrest: A Machine Learning Approach
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Volume/Issue: Volume 2021 Issue 263
Publication date: November 2021
ISBN: 9781557758873
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Topics covered in this book

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Inflation , Economics- Macroeconomics , Economics / General , Environmental Economics , Demography , Social unrest , machine learning , , machine learning model , risk index , prediction model , machine learning approach , IMF working , Machine learning , Inflation , Food prices , Global , unrest event

Summary

We produce a social unrest risk index for 125 countries covering a period of 1996 to 2020. The risk of social unrest is based on the probability of unrest in the following year derived from a machine learning model drawing on over 340 indicators covering a wide range of macro-financial, socioeconomic, development and political variables. The prediction model correctly forecasts unrest in the following year approximately two-thirds of the time. Shapley values indicate that the key drivers of the predictions include high levels of unrest, food price inflation and mobile phone penetration, which accord with previous findings in the literature.