Guatemala: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report

Guatemala's economy continues to grow at its potential given existing constraints, with inflation within the monetary policy’s target. While political risks remain latent, Guatemala maintains its long-standing track record of macroeconomic stability and prudent policies anchored in a low-growth equilibrium. The country has accumulated large buffers, with large remittance inflows and low-deficit policies. Meanwhile, the country faces important challenges, but the fragmented political landscape in Congress, following the 2023 general election, gives limited space to pass a reform agenda to address its long-standing vulnerabilities—i.e., chronic infrastructure, human capital, and social gaps; low tax revenue and gaps in public spending efficiency and transparency; weak governance, corruption, and weak institutions. The window of opportunity to advance is narrowing. In April, S&P upgraded Guatemala's outlook to positive from stable, while maintaining its BB rating.