Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart

This paper develops a simple procedure for incorporating market-based information into the construction of fan charts. Using the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s global growth forecast as a working example, the paper goes through the theoretical and practical considerations of this new approach. The resulting spreadsheet, which implements the approach, is available upon request from the authors.
Publication date: August 2009
ISBN: 9781451873252
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Health Policy , Fan Chart , Balance of Risks , Option Prices , Consensus Forecasts , risk factors , survey , skewness , normal distribution , equation

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