Inflation-at-Risk in in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia

Inflation-at-Risk in in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia
READ MORE...
Volume/Issue: Volume 2022 Issue 168
Publication date: September 2022
ISBN: 9798400217630
$20.00
Add to Cart by clicking price of the language and format you'd like to purchase
Available Languages and Formats
Paperback
PDF
ePub
English
Prices in red indicate formats that are not yet available but are forthcoming.
Summary

This paper investigates inflation risks for 12 Middle East and Central Asia countries, with an equal share of commodities exporters and importers. The empirical strategy leverages the recent developments in the estimation of macroeconomic risks and uses a semi-parametric approach that balances well flexibility and robustness for density projections. The paper uncovers interesting features of inflation dynamics in the region, including the role of backward versus forward-looking drivers, non-linearities, and heterogeneous and delayed exchange rate pass-through. The results have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy and central bank communication in the Middle East and Central Asia and emerging markets in general.