Mexico Needs a Fiscal Twist: Response to Covid-19 and Beyond

Mexico Needs a Fiscal Twist: Response to Covid-19 and Beyond
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Volume/Issue: Volume 2020 Issue 215
Publication date: October 2020
ISBN: 9781513559018
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Public Finance , Covid-19 , fiscal response , tax , social safety nets , general equilibrium model , , WP , social security contribution deferral , cost reduction , tax payment , personal income , property tax , tax administration record , general equilibrium model , WEO GDP , tax instrument , expense estimate , GDP fall , zero rating , lumpsum tax , Social assistance spending , Health care spending , Global

Summary

Mexico’s fiscal response to the pandemic has been modest compared to its peers, reflecting the authorities’ desire to not issue new debt for spending. This approach, however, risks a more severe recession and a weaker economic recovery, with further costs in the future. Balancing the need for stronger near-term fiscal support for the people and the recovery against medium-term discipline, this paper lays out an alternative strategy. We show that credibly announcing a pro-growth and inclusive medium-term fiscal reform upfront—including increased tax capacity, higher public investment and strengthened social safety nets—would open space for larger short-term support and close medium-term fiscal gaps. Model simulations suggest that this package would boost output, limit lasting economic damage from the pandemic, and put debt trajectory on a declining path in the medium term as tax reforms pay off and risk premia decline.