Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets: Proverbial Concerns, Novel Evidence

Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets: Proverbial Concerns, Novel Evidence
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Volume/Issue: Volume 2024 Issue 093
Publication date: May 2024
ISBN: 9798400268564
$20.00
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Topics covered in this book

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Economics- Macroeconomics , Economics / General , Monetary policy shocks , financial markets , emerging markets

Summary

Doubts persist about the effectiveness of monetary transmission in emerging markets, but the empirical evidence is scarce due to challenges in identifying monetary policy shocks. In this paper, we construct new monetary policy shocks using novel analysts’ forecasts of policy rate decisions. Crucial for identification, analysts can update forecasts up to the policy meeting, allowing them to incorporate any relevant data release. Using these shocks, we show that monetary transmission in emerging markets operates similarly to advanced economies. Monetary tightening leads to a persistent increase in bond yields, a contraction in real activity, and a delayed reduction in inflation. Furthermore, monetary policy impacts leveraged firms more strongly.