Nigeria: 2014 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for Nigeria

KEY ISSUES Context. Nigeria has a large and diverse economy that has achieved a decade of strong growth, averaging 6.8 percent a year. However, Nigeria still lags peers in critical infrastructure and has high rates of poverty and income inequality. The sharp decline in oil prices in the second half of 2014 underscores the challenging but compelling need to address remaining development challenges. Outlook and Risks. In 2015, oil exports are projected to decline by 6 percentage points (ppts) of GDP and oil revenue by 2.4 ppts of GDP from 2014 levels, with a reduction in the current account balance and loss in international reserves. A sharp contraction in public investment and domestic demand is projected to reduce growth to 4¾ percent, with inflation increasing to 11½ percent from the effects of exchange rate depreciation. These developments also increase risks to the banking sector, given its significant exposure to the oil industry and the potential for capital outflows. The outlook is subject to significant risks, both external (changes in oil market developments and investor sentiment) and domestic (uncertainty from the election outcome and security situation). Managing adjustment. The authorities adopted bold policy actions in November 2014— an adjustment in the official foreign exchange rate and band, tightening of monetary policy rates, and spending cuts totaling 1.7 ppts of GDP in the proposed 2015 budget. As the oil price fall appears more permanent than temporary, additional policies will be needed, including greater flexibility in the exchange rate and further fiscal adjustment, particularly in state and local governments. It will be essential to ensure that fiscal adjustment is achieved without endangering the delivery of critical public services. Boosting inclusive growth. The authorities have a comprehensive economic transformation agenda, designed to boost growth, create new job opportunities, and reduce poverty. With recent oil market developments, however, non-oil revenue mobilization (including an increase in VAT rate) is more urgent than ever and is critical for creating the fiscal space necessary to implement the transformation agenda. Further, the national infrastructure investment plan needs careful prioritization, as financing the entire plan would be a challenge, even with more supportive financial conditions and good progress in financial inclusion.