Nowcasting and Near-Term Forecasting Cambodia’s Economy

Nowcasting and Near-Term Forecasting Cambodia’s Economy
READ MORE...
Volume/Issue: Volume 2024 Issue 147
Publication date: July 2024
ISBN: 9798400280931
$20.00
Add to Cart by clicking price of the language and format you'd like to purchase
Available Languages and Formats
paperback else
pdf else
epub else
English
Prices in red indicate formats that are not yet available but are forthcoming.
Topics covered in this book

This title contains information about the following subjects. Click on a subject if you would like to see other titles with the same subjects.

Exports and Imports , Inflation , Money and Monetary Policy , Nowcasting , Developing countries , Cambodia , near-term forecasting Cambodia's economy , high-frequency data set , Nowcasting GDP , inflation forecasting model , Cambodia's GDP , Inflation , Vector autoregression , Exports , Credit , Global

Summary

Assessing the current state of the economy and forecast the economic outlook in the next few quarters are important inputs for policymakers. This paper presents a suite of models with an integrated approach to forecast Cambodia’s economy in the current and next few quarters. First, we estimate historical quarterly GDP using information extracted from high-frequency indicators to construct quarterly nowcasting model. Second, we forecast current economic activities using a high-frequency data such as credit, export, tourist arrival, foreign reserves, and trading partner’s GDP. Third, we present inflation forecasting models for Cambodia. Fourth, the paper present a vector autoregression model to forecast Cambodia’s GDP in the next few quarters using global forecasts of China’s and US’s economy as well as oil and rice price. This paper showcase how high-frequency data set can be utilized in assessing current economic activities in countries with limited and lagged data.