One Hundred Inflation Shocks: Seven Stylized Facts

One Hundred Inflation Shocks: Seven Stylized Facts
READ MORE...
Volume/Issue: Volume 2023 Issue 190
Publication date: September 2023
ISBN: 9798400254369
$20.00
Add to Cart by clicking price of the language and format you'd like to purchase
Available Languages and Formats
paperback else
pdf else
epub else
English
Prices in red indicate formats that are not yet available but are forthcoming.
Topics covered in this book

This title contains information about the following subjects. Click on a subject if you would like to see other titles with the same subjects.

Inflation , Economics- Macroeconomics , Public Finance , Economics / General , Inflation Shocks , Disinflation , Monetary Policy , 1973–79 Oil Crises , Termsof- Trade Shocks , terms-of-trade shock , inflation shock , shock episode , episode selection , involved premature celebration , Inflation , Oil prices , Fiscal stance , Global

Summary

This paper identifies over 100 inflation shock episodes in 56 countries since the 1970s, including over 60 episodes linked to the 1973–79 oil crises. We document that only in 60 percent of the episodes was inflation brought back down (or “resolved”) within 5 years, and that even in these “successful” cases resolving inflation took, on average, over 3 years. Success rates were lower and resolution times longer for episodes induced by terms-of-trade shocks during the 1973–79 oil crises. Most unresolved episodes involved “premature celebrations”, where inflation declined initially, only to plateau at an elevated level or re-accelerate. Сountries that resolved inflation had tighter monetary policy that was maintained more consistently over time, lower nominal wage growth, and less currency depreciation, compared to unresolved cases. Successful disinflations were associated with short-term output losses, but not with larger output, employment, or real wage losses over a 5-year horizon, potentially indicating the value of policy credibility and macroeconomic stability.