Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable

Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable
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Volume/Issue: Volume 2023 Issue 158
Publication date: August 2023
ISBN: 9798400245053
$20.00
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Exports and Imports , Economics- Macroeconomics , Economics / General , Developing economies , fragile and conflict-affected states , GDP , low-income countries , nowcasting , sub-Saharan Africa , GDP statistic , panel Nowcasting , data availability , growth data , annex II , data availablity , Commodity prices , Purchasing power parity , Data collection , Export fluctuations , Global

Summary

Quarterly GDP statistics facilitate timely economic assessment, but the availability of such data are limited for more than 60 developing economies, including about 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as more than two-thirds of fragile and conflict-affected states. To address this limited data availablity, this paper proposes a panel approach that utilizes a statistical relationship estimated from countries where data are available, to estimate quarterly GDP statistics for countries that do not publish such statistics by leveraging the indicators readily available for many countries. This framework demonstrates potential, especially when applied for similar country groups, and could provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions supported by empirical evidence.