People’s Republic of China: Selected Issues

People’s Republic of China: Selected Issues
READ MORE...
Volume/Issue: Volume 2024 Issue 276
Publication date: August 2024
ISBN: 9798400285998
$20.00
Add to Cart by clicking price of the language and format you'd like to purchase
Available Languages and Formats
paperback else
pdf else
epub else
Chinese
English
Prices in red indicate formats that are not yet available but are forthcoming.
Topics covered in this book

This title contains information about the following subjects. Click on a subject if you would like to see other titles with the same subjects.

Exports and Imports , Inflation , Economics- Macroeconomics , Service , service sector productivity , B , deflation vulnerability index , outward FDI , inflation expectation , emissions trading system , Foreign direct investment , Services sector , Total factor productivity , Inflation , Global

Also of interest
Summary

This Selected Issues paper assesses the downside risks to inflation around the baseline in China. Recent economic shocks in China, including the ongoing property sector adjustment, have resulted in disinflationary pressures and low inflation. A deflation vulnerability index (DVI) has been developed, which combines data from many factors that may contribute to deflationary pressures. This paper refines the list of deflation risk indicators to better reflect China’ deflation pressures. Based on the DVI, China is currently experiencing its longest recorded period of downward pressure on inflation. The inflation-at-risk analysis suggests that output gaps and inflation expectations are the key components of DVI affecting the tail risk of core deflation in China. The probability of deflation in China is currently estimated to be around 7 percent in the baseline but could be as large as 27 (54) percent 9 months after a one (two) standard deviation shock to DVI.