Philippines: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Philippines

Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Volume/Issue: Volume 2023 Issue 414

Publication date: December 2023

ISBN: 9798400260551

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Topics covered in this book

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Inflation , Economics- Macroeconomics , Money and Monetary Policy , Public Finance , Business and Economics - Statistics , International - Economics , staff appraisal , staff projection , IMF staff representative , inflation expectation , catch-up expenditure plan , Inflation , External sector statistics , Global , Asia and Pacific

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Summary

After a strong recovery from the pandemic in 2022, growth moderated in the first half of 2023 due to external headwinds, fiscal underspending, and normalization of pent-up demand. Inflation decelerated from the peak in early 2023 supported by domestic policy tightening despite a recent uptick related to resurgent commodity prices. Growth is projected to rebound in the second half of 2023 and 2024 while inflation is expected to gradually approach the target. Risks to the growth outlook are tilted to the downside, mainly stemming from persistently high inflation, globally and locally, and a highly uncertain global economic and geopolitical environment. Upside risks to the inflation outlook include higher commodity prices and potential second-round effects.