Republic of North Macedonia: 2023 Article IV Consultation and First Review Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of North Macedonia

Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

2023 Article IV Consultation

Volume/Issue: Volume 2024 Issue 026

Publication date: January 2024

ISBN: 9798400265754

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Topics covered in this book

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Exports and Imports , Inflation , Money and Monetary Policy , Public Finance , Business and Economics - Statistics , International - Economics , PLL negotiations , inflation expectation , inflation risk , authorities' agenda , fund RELATIONS , authorities' ability , Inflation , Credit , Public investment spending , Global

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Summary

Recent Developments, Outlook and Risks. Staff project GDP growth of 2.3 percent in 2023, lower than at the time of PLL arrangement approval, driven by lower external demand and a slowdown in investment. Staff expect an investment recovery to be a key driver of the recovery in 2024, with projected GDP growth of 3.0 percent. Inflation is coming down, driven by monetary tightening and lower global commodity prices, and is projected to be at 4.5 percent average in 2024. The current account is benefitting from lower international energy prices, and international reserves are at an adequate level and projected to remain so. Risks are mainly related to geopolitical tensions, commodity price volatility, and unfunded promises ahead of the elections planned for the spring.