The authorities’ policy adjustment program is producing early results. By end-October, the exchange rate had depreciated more than expected for the year, and fiscal and monetary policies were tightened in line with the agreed program. During the first 10 months of the year, import volumes contracted, despite large public investment projects, and export volumes improved, despite continued difficulties in the mining sector. Growth began decelerating in Q2, in line with expectations. Inflation has picked up, mainly as a result of food shortages stemming from drought, and to a lesser extent exchange rate pass—through. The 2016 current account balance will improve slightly less than envisaged with a higher services deficit, but medium term improvement is in line with the program.
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