Recovery from the twin shocks of Ebola and the collapse of the iron ore sector continues. Non-iron ore sector growth is projected to be 3.7 percent in 2016, led by manufacturing and trade. Iron ore growth is also recovering, with the main company now operating with moderate profitability. Overall growth is projected to be 4.9 percent. Inflation was 10.9 percent at end-September, while the exchange rate has depreciated 19 percent over the last year. The budget is under severe pressure, in part because the rapid depreciation has stripped the government of all excise revenue from retail fuel, and led to explicit subsidies from the budget to keep retail fuel prices fixed. All end-June performance criteria were met while some structural benchmarks were missed. However, the ceiling on net domestic financing was met in part through the accumulation of arrears. There was also a minor non-observance of the continuous ceiling on external debt and a temporary multiple currency practice was introduced in recent months. This is the last review under this ECF arrangement, which expires on December 21, 2016. The authorities have expressed interest in negotiating a successor program in early 2017.
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