The Nexus of Climate and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Middle East and Central Asia

The Nexus of Climate and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Middle East and Central Asia
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Volume/Issue: Volume 2024 Issue 090
Publication date: April 2024
ISBN: 9798400274459
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Banks and Banking , Inflation , Economics- Macroeconomics , Economics / General , Environmental Economics , Public Policy- Environmental Policy , Monetary policy , inflation , climate change , food inflation , monetary policy in the Middle East and Central Asia , IMF working paper 24/90 , monetary policy shock , food price , Food prices , Central bank policy rate , Consumer price indexes , Middle East and Central Asia , Global

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Summary

This paper investigates the effects of climate shocks on inflation and monetary policy in the Middle East and Central Asia (ME&CA) region. We first introduce a theoretical model to understand the impact of climate risks on headline and food inflation. In particular, the model shows how climate shocks could affect the path of policy rates through food prices. We then use local projections to estimate the impact of climate shocks on headline and food inflation. The results show that price stability is more easily achievable under positive climate conditions. Overall, our findings shed new light on the importance of considering climate-related supply shocks when designing monetary policy, particularly in countries where food makes up a significant part of the CPI-basket.

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