The Potential Macroeconomic Impact of the Unconventional Oil and Gas Boom in the United States

This paper uses two of the IMF's structural macroeconomic models to estimate thepotential global impact of the boom in unconventional oil and natural gas in the UnitedStates. The results suggest that the impact on the level of U.S. real GDP over roughly thenext decade could be significant, but modest, ranging between 1 and 1½ percent. Further,while the impact on the U.S. energy trade balance will be large, most results suggest thatits impact on the overall U.S. current account will be negligible. The impact outside of theUnited States will be modestly positive on average, but most countries dependent onenergy exports will be affected adversely.