Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown to the Singapore Economy: Singapore

This paper examines the impact of China's economic deceleration on Singapore, highlighting how the deepening trade integration and China's pivotal role in Global Value Chains (GVCs) amplify these spillover effects.
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Volume/Issue: Volume 2024 Issue 041
Publication date: August 2024
ISBN: 9798400286230
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Topics covered in this book

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Exports and Imports , Economics- Macroeconomics , China , ASEAN , Growth Spillovers , Input-output table , Local projections , General equilibrium model , Global value chains , IMF China growth projection , China growth shock , Singapore economy , growth slowdown , growth shock , Spillovers , Exports , Productivity , Southeast Asia , Global , Asia and Pacific

Summary

This paper examines the impact of China's economic deceleration on Singapore, highlighting how the deepening trade integration and China's pivotal role in Global Value Chains (GVCs) amplify these spillover effects. Utilizing multi-region input-output tables, empirical estimates, and the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model, it identifies significant sectoral and aggregate impacts, particularly in electrical and machinery manufacturing, petrochemicals, and financial services. The analysis underscores the vulnerability of Singapore's economy to shifts in Chinese demand and productivity, emphasizing the need for vigilant monitoring and strategic adaptation to mitigate potential risks associated with China's slowdown.